If Everyone Quit Wheat Tomorrow, What Happens to Australia?

Michelle Donath
Mar 17
6 min read

Updated: 3 days ago

And would we be left with nothing but rice crackers and existential dread?

Let’s say everyone just… stopped.

No more toast.

No more pasta.

No more flaky croissants, wheaty breakfast biscuits, or dense brown loaves from that one bakery you pretend not to visit twice a week.

If every Australian swore off wheat tomorrow, what happens?

Would our guts rejoice? Would our food system implode? Would farmers be ruined? Would supermarkets simply swap in more gluten-free labels and keep rolling?

This isn’t a post about whether you should eat wheat. It’s a thought experiment.

One that reveals a lot about our agricultural systems, food habits, and how tightly economic survival is linked to what we put on our plates.

First: Australia’s Wheat Obsession

Wheat is the top crop in Australia. We’re not talking about a few paddocks, it’s grown across over 10 million hectares and makes up roughly $10 billion of our annual agricultural value, with more than 70% exported.

It fuels:

Our breakfast cereals, breads, and snack bars
Our bakery chains and school lunchboxes
Livestock feed
Bulk exports to Indonesia, China, Japan, and the Middle East

And while other nations may grow more wheat overall, Australia is prized for its high-protein, high-gluten quality. It's used to strengthen global dough mixes and asian noodles. Interestingly, Australia grows only 3-4% of the world’s wheat but makes up 10%-20% of the global wheat trade.

In short? It’s a pillar of the economy, the food industry, and the way many Australians eat.

So What Happens if Wheat Consumption Just… Stops?

Let’s play it out. Not globally, just here.

If every Australian stopped eating wheat, we’d be cutting domestic demand by around 30%. The other 70%? Still going offshore.

So this wouldn't be the end of wheat farming. It would be a shift in what happens to the wheat we grow, and who we grow it for.

Economically?

Demand for milling-grade wheat for domestic use would vanish, no more supermarket sandwich loaves, biscuits, cereal, or wraps
Food manufacturers and bakeries would scramble to reformulate and reposition, some would pivot, some would likely fold
Grain processors and millers, especially those servicing local, processed food production, would need to restructure
Logistics and distribution systems built around local wheat flow would contract or adapt to new grains
Wheat growers might not feel the full hit immediately, thanks to strong export markets, but they’d lose domestic buyers, and low-grade wheat varieties might lose value
Alternative grain crops (millet, spelt, sorghum, buckwheat) could finally move out of niche status and into commercial relevance

Would the economy collapse? Probably not. But it would send a shockwave through rural communities and small-to-mid tier producers who are often already under pressure.

Culturally?

A national drop in wheat consumption wouldn’t just be economic. It would hit emotionally.

Because wheat is embedded in how we eat, and how we think about eating.

White toast and Weet-Bix aren’t just breakfast. They’re childhood. Routine. Comfort.
Bakery treats, weekend sourdough, the sandwich lunchbox, this is food that feels familiar, safe, easy.
We don’t just eat wheat. We’re structured around it.

So if demand collapsed overnight, there’d be backlash. There’d be marketing campaigns. Probably a "real bread" revival. A meme war.

And a wave of resistance from those who see it as nutritional overreaction, or elitism, or an attack on culture.

So… Is That Bad?

Not necessarily. But it’s revealing.

When one ingredient is woven through every aisle, every menu, every meal, it’s not just about taste or tradition, it’s about infrastructure. Supply chains. Subsidies. A food system built on speed, shelf-life, and sameness.

So if wheat demand dropped, even by 30%, it wouldn’t collapse the system. But it would force it to diversify.

And that’s not a bad thing.

It would open up space for other grains. For small-scale growers. For culturally relevant flours. For products made with actual intention, not just filler and fortification.

It would also make us ask: Why did we ever build so much of our diet around one type of grass?

But What About Farmers?

This is where it gets complicated.

Wheat farmers aren’t the enemy. They’re part of a system that’s been shaped by decades of policy, climate, export demands, and economic pressure to scale.

Many may grow wheat, not because it’s their dream crop, but because it’s viable. It stores well. It moves easily. It gets government support. And for a lot of farmers, it’s one of the few ways to make a living in an increasingly fragile agricultural economy.

If domestic demand dropped, most farmers likley wouldn’t collapse overnight. The majority of Australian wheat is exported, so global markets would keep things moving.

But some farms would feel it: especially those closer to milling plants, domestic contracts, or supermarket supply chains.

And here’s the bigger truth: farmers need options too.

They need infrastructure for alternative grains. They need buyers for regenerative crops. They need systems that support diversity, not just in what we eat, but in what they’re allowed to grow and still survive financially.

Changing the wheat status quo isn’t anti-farmer. It’s an invitation to reimagine what we support with our dollar, and what we ask of our land.

Let’s Talk About Land

Wheat can be hard on soil, especially when grown in monoculture or with minimal rest periods.

Over time, this can lead to:

Topsoil erosion
Soil carbon loss
Salinity issues (a growing problem across Australian farms)
Declining organic matter and microbial diversity

The land becomes less fertile. The yields start to dip. And the solution? Often more chemical inputs just to stay afloat.

Which leads to...

The Chemical Catch

Wheat farming in Australia is heavily reliant on herbicides and pesticides.

Glyphosate (commonly known as Roundup) is standard practice for:

Pre-harvest desiccation
Weed control
Zero-till cropping systems

In some regions, overuse has led to:

Herbicide-resistant weeds
Increased chemical burden on ecosystems
Residue concerns for export markets and local eaters alike

Most wheat sold in supermarkets is well within regulation. But chronic low-dose exposure to pesticides is something public health researchers are still trying to unpack.

Especially when it comes to hormonal, neurological, and gut health impacts.

What About Our Bodies?

Even if you tolerate wheat, your body may still be working hard to process what comes with it.

The Wheat Sensitivity Spectrum

It’s not just coeliac disease (which affects ~1 in 70 Australians). There’s also:

Non-coeliac wheat sensitivity
Wheat allergy
FODMAP intolerance (wheat contains fructans)

And then there’s the broader population with:

IBS
Bloating
Foggy brain
Joint pain

Who find that wheat, especially refined, heavily processed wheat, makes symptoms worse.

This isn’t always about gluten. Sometimes it’s about the rest of the grain. Or what’s been sprayed on it. Or how often we’re eating it.

Wheat isn’t “bad.” But it’s everywhere. Which means it’s easy to overdo without even realising it.

Do We Rely on Wheat Too Much?

Let’s be real, yes. Wheat is easy, accessible, and socially normalised. But we eat it at nearly every meal.

And often in ways that:

Spike blood sugar
Lack fibre
Come wrapped in ultra-processing and preservatives

The bigger issue isn’t wheat itself. It’s how centrally it sits in our food system, leaving less room for biodiversity, both on our farms and on our plates.